BBC Preview: Bet on Billingsley and the Dodgers

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 4 Fantasy Forecaster!

Blue Öyster Cult had it right those 30-plus years ago: Don't fear the reaper.

Fear the early-season slump.

Or at least you should if you're a Baseball Challenge player. The most common e-mail complaints I get in these early weeks of the baseball season go a little something like this: "Why isn't so-and-so-batter-I-spent-a-heck-of-a-lot-of-money-on-in-the-draft hitting?" or "What the heck is wrong with so-and-so-pitcher-I-expected-to-win-the-Cy-Young?" Usually the latter is followed by something along the lines of "He's gotta be hurt, right?" or "Should I dump him for so-and-so-pitcher-who-three-weeks-ago-I-actually-had-ranked-lower-on-my-board-than-Livan Hernandez?"

(If you think that's scary, well, the really scary part comes when that very pitcher the individual is asking me about picking up is Livan Hernandez.)

But I digress.

One of the greatest things about the BBC is that, unlike in traditional fantasy baseball, you aren't stuck with those sluggish starters. And if you're a newbie and haven't yet learned the little tricks to the game, let me be the first to tell you this: Not only don't you have to stick with a slow starter, I advise you not to stick with him.

Patience does not win you a BBC championship. Only in our game can I say the following sentence with confidence: "Jimmy Rollins, get your sorry behind off my BBC roster!" (In a traditional fantasy league, such a statement might get me committed.)

A caveat: What applies strategically today does not change two, five, 10 or 22 weeks from now. Hold no allegiance to any player in the BBC -- barring their being locked in at a deep discount and still comparably productive enough to justify it -- and be prepared to scoop up these slow starters … once, of course, they've given you reason to do so.

Baseball has a funny way of evening itself out over the course of 162 games (and 180-plus dates on the calendar). Streaks swing the other direction, stats balance out … and in the meantime, if you've been monitoring the virtual stock market, you'll know the precise time to pounce the moment they do. See, that's another great part of the BBC: You know the exact second the market changes, Sunday night at lineup-lock time.

That in mind, while I'd say that the following five hitters in no way belong anywhere near a BBC roster today, in one month from now I wouldn't be at all shocked to be writing a top-five "Go get 'em" list comprising the same five names:

Rollins: I'll say the same thing here that I've told all of his owners who have asked me about him -- does this really surprise you all that much? Yes, it's a terrible start by Rollins, but he's coming off a somewhat down year, and besides, he's a historic second-half player, with a career OPS 63 points higher after June 1 than before it. Be patient, Rollins owners … except, again, you BBC players.

Brian McCann: Eye problems are largely responsible for his early-season swoon, but all indications are that he has a new set of contacts that have corrected the problem. Still, I'm anticipating it'll take him another week or two to get completely comfortable at the plate after his slow start, and in the meantime there's a chance that might deflate his price tag nearer to the dirt-cheap (relatively speaking) 4.5 range. In his career, McCann is a .299 hitter who has averaged one home run per 23.2 at-bats with an .862 OPS after May 1. Be prepared to pounce the moment he appears locked in at the plate.

Mark Teixeira: Like Rollins, Teixeira is a noted second-half player, or more accurately an after-June 1 performer, with a career OPS 118 points higher after that date than before it. Plus, he's adapting to the spotlight of New York and the role of leader of the Yankees' offense with Alex Rodriguez currently sidelined. A-Rod is due back in a couple of weeks, and after that point Teixeira might be the stronger BBC bargain, since his so-so numbers will have sagged his price tag while A-Rod's has remained constant.

Matt Holliday: I built in the preseason what I thought at the time was a very compelling case that Holliday remained an elite fantasy player despite the move to Oakland, and thus far, I'm sure most people who remember it now think I'm crazy. But I've got another piece of evidence to support Holliday's case: The switch from the National League to the American League, which forced him to learn a whole new set of pitchers, might be causing the bulk of his problems. Miguel Cabrera's 2008 is an excellent comparison; he batted .270 with eight home runs and a .791 OPS in his first 62 games as an American Leaguer, and .306 with 29 homers and a .944 OPS in his final 98 contests. Holliday lacks that kind of power to make it a perfect comparison, but he'll also hit for a higher average once he gets fully acclimated to the league switch.

New York Yankees pitching staff: That homer-friendly home ballpark has wreaked havoc on Yankee pitching the first three weeks of the season, but as the temperatures begin to rise and the team gets more comfortable in its new digs, this staff will become closer to the top-10 pick it appeared to be in the preseason. The bottom line is that a healthy rotation that includes CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain might strike out 1,000 batters and win 90 games, and that's 1,450 points right there. Problem is, there's no way I want this staff in my lineup until we get an accurate read on the ballpark's effects.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (@SF-3, SD-4 -- two-start pitchers Randy Wolf and Chad Billingsley), 7.0 price tag: It's practically the same schedule and it's one of the same two-start pitchers (Billingsley) they had two weeks ago when they managed 140 points facing the Giants and Rockies lineups, so spend, spend, spend to get them! If the BBC game forced individual pitching selections instead of team matchups, Billingsley would be the top earner thus far in this scoring system (84 points in four starts). The top earner among closers? You guessed it, Jonathan Broxton (38).

2. Minnesota Twins (TB-3, KC-3 -- two-start pitcher Scott Baker), 5.7: I'm taking a big risk recommending them, but they're cheap, and they're at home, and in 2008 this staff ranked third in baseball in team ERA at home (3.27) and fourth in WHIP (1.22). The Twins' five current starters were combined 52-34 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 128 starts at the Metrodome in 2008, and I firmly believe that Baker, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey are far more talented than they have pitched thus far. Maybe it's a little early to hop on this bandwagon, but with matchups like these, I'll take the risk.

3. Chicago Cubs (@ARI-3, FLA-4 -- two-start pitchers Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano), 6.5): Two things stand out about the Cubs this week -- first, obviously, their two-start pitchers. Lilly and Zambrano have a 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings in seven starts combined. But the other point here is the matchups; the Diamondbacks and Marlins are the two most strikeout-prone offenses in baseball, and BBC players know that with each K worth a point, those are advantageous matchups. Check the numbers: Since Opening Day 2008, Florida has a 75.2 percent team contact rate and Arizona 76.3 percent. No other team is even within a percentage point of that.

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me.

J. Geoff of Toms River, N.J., says: "I was looking forward to competing with you again this year, and after 10 years of playing the daily game, it was nice to switch to weekly last year. Then you go daily, I cursed and went along. Then you go back to weekly again! ARGH! You just wait 'til 2010 my friend -- if I make it thru this season! (LOL)"

Sorry J. Geoff, though I've always been a weekly-format BBC player, I've gotten a lot of people calling for me to join them in the daily format. I suppose if there's enough demand for it, I'll do it for the second-half segment -- in addition to my weekly team -- despite my comments from last week. So get those e-mails in, folks!

Frank says: "Are you sure about the Rays in the weekly BBC?"

Yup! So far 62 points through three games, and with Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza on the way this weekend, as well as three matchups at pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum against the team that not only ranked dead last in team OPS in 2008 (.686), but also ranks there this season (.611), I'm feeling pretty cozy in my quest for 100-plus points. Too late for you weekly owners, but if you're in the daily format, take a look.

I'm going with a theme this week: All designated hitters as daily dips. Of course, I haven't forgotten about the other positions; selected secondary matchups are listed for each date.

Monday, April 27 -- Jason Kubel, DH, Twins (versus Jeff Niemann), 3.5 price tag: It'll be the first time these two square off, but going in I declare it "advantage, Kubel." He's the one with the .307 batting average, 11 home runs and .900 OPS in 78 home games since the beginning of last season, and the .289 average and .846 OPS versus right-handers during that span. Also take a look at Braves 2B Kelly Johnson (4.9), 6-for-9 (.667 BA) with two home runs in his career against Joel Pineiro.

Tuesday, April 28 -- Jim Thome, DH, White Sox (versus Felix Hernandez), 4.7: In 12 career plate appearances against "King Felix," Thome has two doubles, three home runs, three walks and one hit-by-pitch. All three of the homers, incidentally, came at U.S. Cellular Field, the locale for this game. Also take a look at Brewers CF Mike Cameron (4.9), who was 9-for-15 (.611 BA) with three home runs versus Paul Maholm in 2008.

Wednesday, April 29 -- David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (versus Fausto Carmona), 4.9: Counting the postseason, "Big Papi" is 4-for-7 (.571 BA) with one home run and two walks in his career against Carmona. He's also a .350 hitter (14-for-40) with three homers and a 1.063 OPS in 10 games at Jacobs Field since 2005. Also look at Phillies RF Jayson Werth (4.7), 6-for-13 (.462 BA) with two homers lifetime against Scott Olsen.

Thursday, April 30 -- Jack Cust, DH, Athletics (versus Scott Feldman), 4.9: He's 4-for-11 (.364 BA) with two home runs and two walks in his career against Feldman, and averaged 4.4 points per game at Rangers Ballpark in 2008. (That's 31 in a seven-game week.) Also look at fellow DH Luke Scott of the Orioles (3.4), who in five career at-bats versus Roy Halladay has two hits (both home runs) and four RBIs.

Friday, May 1 -- Marlon Byrd, DH, Rangers (versus Mark Buehrle), 3.8: He might be only 2-for-9 in his career against Buehrle, but he's also a lifetime .329 hitter with a .918 OPS in 128 games at Rangers Ballpark, and a .298 hitter with an .830 OPS versus left-handers since the beginning of 2007. Also look at Indians RF Shin-Soo Choo (4.7), a .346 hitter with one home run in seven games at Comerica Park in 2008.

Saturday, May 2 -- Hank Blalock, DH, Rangers (versus Jose Contreras), 3.9: Though he's 0-for-7 in his career versus Contreras, I'm banking on his snapping that slump this time around. After all, any Blalock home game versus a right-hander is an instant standout, as he's a .324 hitter with 15 homers, 51 RBIs and a .991 OPS in 65 home games since 2007, and a .288 hitter with an .866 OPS versus right-handers. Also take a look at Dodgers RF Andre Ethier (5.0), a lifetime .391 hitter (9-for-23) with four home runs, five walks and a 1.500 OPS against Chris Young.

Sunday, May 3 -- Jim Thome, DH, White Sox (versus Kevin Millwood), 4.7: He's 4-for-6 (.667) with three home runs and three walks in his career against Millwood, and was 13-for-23 (.565 BA) with four home runs in six games at Rangers Ballpark the past two years combined. Also take a look at Tigers 3B Brandon Inge (4.5), 12-for-30 (.400) with two home runs and four walks in his career against Cliff Lee.

Total points: 863 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.8. Overall rank: 94th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 15th.

C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (BOS-3, @DET-3), locked at 4.8 price tag, 5.1 market: Still 23 points ahead of the pack at his position; no way I'm letting him go.
1B -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (NYY-3, CLE-3), locked at 5.0, 5.6 market: Turns out Albert Pujols would have been the smarter early bargain, but can't complain about a player whose points-per-game average (4.8) is nearly the same as his price.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (@TOR-3, @BAL-3), locked at 5.0, 5.6 market: I like Aaron Hill (3.9) as a dirt-cheap bargain, but Kinsler has more multi-category potential.
3B -- Josh Fields, White Sox (SEA-3, @TEX-3), 3.5: Hey, he's cheap enough to fill out my lineup, and those are six games in homer-friendly ballparks. Worst-case scenario, it's not like David Wright is unaffordable if I want to get him back.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@NYM-3, @CHC-4), locked at 5.0, 5.2 market: Seven games, three against lefty starters, is enough to convince me to keep him around.
LF -- Ryan Braun, Brewers (PIT-3, ARI-4), 4.8: It's time to buy, as his price is bound to go up on Monday. He once again looks like the Braun of old, and it's a full week at home, where he's a .307 hitter with a .993 OPS for his career.
CF -- Grady Sizemore, Indians (BOS-3, @DET-3), locked at 5.2, 5.5 market: He walks, hits for power, steals bases, scores runs … what's not to like?
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (TEX-1, LAA-2, @TOR-3), locked at 5.0, 5.5 market: He has tallied at least one point in every game this season and has four or more in nine of 16 contests -- now that's consistency.
DH -- Jim Thome, White Sox (SEA-3, @TEX-3), 4.7: I'm not missing out on those incredible matchups in the "daily dips" section above!
Pitching staff -- Dodgers (@SF-3, SD-4), 7.0

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.